Technical Analysis - Myth or Magic?: Magisterarbeit

Master's Thesis from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1, Sheffield Hallam University (Sheffield Business School), language: English, abstract: Table of content



TABLE OF FIGURES"""""""""".""""""""""""""""""""."...I



GLOSSARY"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""".".....II

1. INTRODUCTION 1


2. SHARE ANALYSIS AND ITS PREMISES 5


3. 1 CLASSIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT 5


4. 2 DOW THEORY IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH TA 6


5. 2.1 The Averages Discount Everything (except "Acts of God") 6


6. 2.2 The Three Trends 7


7. 2.3 The History repeats itself 10


8. 2.4 Criticism of the Dow Theory 11


9. 3 RANDOM WALK THEORY IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH BHS 12


10. 3.1 Criticism of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 15


11. 4 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 17


12. 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS VERSUS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 17


13. METHODOLOGY 20


14. 1 TEST CONDITIONS 20


15. 2 TESTED INDICES 23


16. INSTRUMENTS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 25


17. 1 INDICATORS 25


18. 1.1 Moving Averages 25


19. 1.2 Moving Average Convergence Divergence 26


20. 1.3 Bollinger Bands 27


21. 2 OSCILLATORS 28


22. 2.1 The dilemma of Oscillators 28


23. 2.2 Momentum 28


24. 2.3 Relative Strength Index 30


25. 2.4 Slow Stochastic 31


26. 2.5 Combination of Indicators and Oscillators 32


27. 3 APPROACH TO PERFORMANCE TESTS 32


28. RESULTS/FINDINGS 34


29. 1 BHS 34


30. 2 EMA 35


31. 3 MACD 36


32. 4 BOLLINGER BANDS 37


33. 5 MOMENTUM 38


34. 6 RSI 39


35. 7 SLOW STOCHASTIC 40


36. ANALYSIS 41


37. 1 EMA 41


38. 2 MACD 43


39. 3 BOLLINGER BANDS 44


40. 4 MOMENTUM 45


41. 5 RSI 47


42. 6 SLOW STOCHASTIC 48


43. CONCLUSION 50


44. APPENDIX 53